Real Clear Politics Average for Gary Johnson in a Holding Pattern on Heels of CNN Town Hall

Every Saturday we analyze the Real Clear Politics average of polls for Gary Johnson and the 2016 Presidential election. The polling on Gary Johnson has been a roller coaster ride every time a new poll comes out.  From double digit polling, to single digit polling, it is becoming hard to really understand where Gary Johnson’s support actually sits with the electorate.

Currently the RCP average has him up a tiny bit from last week when he was at 8.5%.

Screen Shot 2016-06-25 at 8.38.25 AM

From this graphic you can see what I just said earlier.  There is a constant up and down in the polling being done on Gary Johnson.  So the big question is why?  Why the inconsistency?  It is in part because of poll inclusion.  Not every poll is including Gary Johnson, and when they do it is a hit and miss in terms of how they ask the question, and when they ask it in the poll.

Somebody will point it out, so I will jump on it right now, but when they include Jill Stein in their polls, Johnson’s numbers go down.  In my opinion that is coming from the dissatisfaction that people have with Trump and Clinton.  When people see a different name they go ahead and say they will support them without even knowing who they are.  That is where Johnson and Stein sit right now.  They both have little name recognition with the ordinary voter.

However, the polls are in a holding pattern right now on the heels of the CNN Town Hall.  The exposure that the Johnson campaign received the other night on CNN will have an impact on their poll numbers.  It is now a waiting game to see when and who will run the next poll that comes on the heels of that appearance.

We are not discourage by the polling right now for a couple of reasons.  First, polling on third party candidates is not something that political scientists have a firm understanding on, and secondly the polling firms are not use to including third parties in their polls therefore it is uncharted territory.  Libertarians should not be worried that the numbers aren’t going up dramatically, but rather hopeful that the numbers are becoming consistent and now the only place they can go is up, especially with the media attention the Libertarian Party is getting in the three weeks following the convention.

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4 Comments Add yours

  1. Greg says:

    None of the polls were taken after #LIBTOWNHALL. Too soon to determine what affect it had on polls, if any.

    Like

    1. That is exactly what we are saying.

      Like

    2. kcfield says:

      The NBC/WSJ poll was taken both before and after the town hall meeting; and has Johnson at 10%–his highest yet in four way polling (with Stein). It will be interesting to see what the polls that are completely post town hall will show.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Chance says:

    Polls should only include those names that will be on the ballot in ALL fifty states. There are really only three choices.

    Like

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