The Libertarian Vindicator’s “Way Too Early” Presidential Poll yielded many interesting results in regard to the currently announced candidates and those who have said they are interested or speculated to run.
Among the four current candidates (Cecil Anthony Ince, Adam Kokesh, Zoltan Istvan and Donald Eugene Lowe), the majority Libertarians who responded did not want to vote for any of these candidates, but disregarding those responses, Adam Kokesh led the four candidates with 24%.
None of the above: 53%
Adam Kokesh: 24%
Cecil Anthony Ince: 11%
Zoltan Istvan: 10%
Donald Eugene Lowe: 2%
Most shocking was the results of question 2 of the poll which included all potential candidates based upon displayed interested or speculation among libertarian new sources. Larry Sharpe was the overwhelming choice among those who participated with 55%, and no other candidate coming within 46% of the current candidate for Governor of New York.
Oddly, the 24% that Adam Kokesh garnered in question 1 did not carry over when pitted against other options for candidates and his percentage fell by 15%. Kokesh did still end up as being one of the top three candidates, with Peter Schiff falling shortly behind him. The remaining candidates from question 1 also saw a significant decrease in voting percentage when other candidates were added.
Larry Sharpe: 55%
Adam Kokesh: 9%
Peter Schiff: 8%
None of the above: 6%
Zoltan Istvan 6%
Bill Weld: 6%
Mary Ruwart: 4%
Cecil Anthony Ince: 3%
Tom Campbell: 2%
Jeffery Miron: 1%
Those who did not receive votes: Kmele Foster, Steve Kerbel, Donald Eugene Lowe
Comparison To Other Polls
Larry Sharpe’s stock as the lead contender for the 2020 nomination has increased since A Libertarian Future did their first poll in November of 2016. This poll is skewed a bit because it included Rand Paul, Justin Amash and Gary Johnson among others, so Sharpe only received 6% of the vote. However, in their second poll from March 2017, that included all of the same names, Sharpe had 25% of the vote.
This number has continued to increase as Sharpe earned 43% in the Jack News’ July 2017 poll, and now he has earned 55% in our poll. The New York Libertarian’s stock only decreases when he is pitted against candidates like Rand Paul or Justin Amash, who are unlikely to run for president as a Libertarian (as demonstrated by the Jack News’ August 2017 Poll, where he received 28.5% of the vote).
Adam Kokesh is another candidate who’s percentage of votes in polls has increased since the first one in 2016, but the results of the Libertarian Vindicator’s poll show a slight decrease in his percentage.
A Libertarian Future November 2016 Poll: 1%
A Libertarian Future March 2017 Poll: 2%
The Jack News July 2017 Poll: 10.2%
The Jack News August 2017 Poll: 3.9%
The Libertarian Vindicator January 2018 Poll: 9%
The same trend of a dramatic decrease in votes when pitted against Justin Amash or Rand Paul occurs in Kokesh’s percentage as did Larry Sharpe’s.
Peter Schiff was not included in A Libertarian Future’s two polls, or The Jack News’ first poll so data on his trend of popularity is more difficult to demonstrate, but here are his numbers so far:
TJN August 2017 Poll: 8.2%
TLV January 2018 Poll: 8%
The most surprising trend of Peter Schiff’s inclusion in the polls is the decrease that other potential candidates have seen in their percentages. Steve Kerbel originally had 6% in The Jack News’ first poll that did not included Schiff, but when he was included in the August poll, his percentage fell to 0.9% (this could also be partially due to the inclusion of Justin Amash). In our poll, Kerbel received no votes, suggesting that with the inclusion of emerging candidates, his stock is falling. Jeff Miron had also seen a decrease with the inclusion of Schiff with his polling falling from a 10.2% tie with Adam Kokesh, to 1% in two polls.
Bill Weld has the touchiest polling percentages of all with seemingly steady percentages, a massive spike in August and then a decrease in TLV poll.
ALF November 2016 Poll: 9%
ALF March 2017 Poll: 8%
TJN July 2017 Poll: Not included
TJN August 2017 Poll: 22.6%
TLV January 2018 Poll: 6%
Zoltan Istvan entered into the top 5 potential candidates with his first inclusion in a poll, tying former LP VP candidate Bill Weld with 6%.
With there being no prior polling information on Cecil Anthony Ince, no trends can be analyzed besides that he is only slightly behind the top candidates with 3% of the vote.
Mary Ruwart’s percentage saw a slight increase.
TJN August 2017 Poll: 2.8%
TLV January Poll: 4%
Tom Campbell’s votes have gradually fallen since his inclusion in TJN polls.
TJN July 2017 Poll: 6%
TJN August 2017 Poll: 2.9%
TLV January 2018 Poll: 2%
Donald Eugene Lowe received no votes when pitted against other potential candidates.
Kmele Foster’s first inclusion in a poll saw him receiving no votes.