Earlier today the Speaker of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom made an advisory ruling, in accordance with Parliamentary procedure and precedent, that there can be no further vote on the already rejected Brexit deal as it is. As the designate date for exit, March 29, draws nearer, this has huge implications on the posible Brexit outcomes. In this article I explain the possible Brexit scenarios and how they might come about.
The current deal agreed upon by the European Union and the Government of the United kingdom, but dully rejected by Parliament, is called May’s Deal after Prime Minister Theresa May. This is the deal that cannot be put to a vote again if there is no significant change, and there can be no significant change to the deal because the vote would have to happen before the meeting of the European Council which will take place on Thursday, March 21. The UK Government had hoped to pass May’s Deal on Tuesday, March 19, and subsequently request a short extension on the exit deadline in order to be able to implement the deal. After the speaker’s ruling, this is a highly unlikely scenario.
Parliament has passed a resolution instructing the UK Government, that in the event May’s Deal is not passed, it should seek a long extension in order to be able to negotiate a New Deal. But for any extension to be granted, the 27 Member Countries of the EU have to unanimously agree; some of their representatives have already expressed that for any extension to be granted they would requite “credible justification”, meaning it is highly unlikely they will grant an extension with the purpose of further negotiation.
No Brexit or Full Brexit
If May’s Deal is not accepted and no extension is granted, Parliament has about a week from the European Council meeting to the exit deadline to decide whether to withdraw Article 50, thus staying in the EU indefinitely, or exit the EU with no deal, thus obtaining a relationship with the EU like any other country, like the United States. Both are equally likely possibilities.
There are certain factors which lead me to believe that, if and when it comes to this, a No Deal Full Brexit scenario has a better chance of success. The original referendum in 2016 did in fact instruct the UK Government (by a non-neglectable margin) to leave the EU. Furthermore, the UK Government recently published an advisory document, indicating that in the case of a No Deal Brexit, the UK would suspend most of its importation tariffs, thus being quite beneficial to the British consumer.